Rosige Zukunftsaussichten für ETF-Märkte
Trotz der aktuellen Krise auf den weltweiten Finanzmärkten und stetig sinkenden Börsenkursen, zeichnet sich laut einer Studie des US-Vermögensverwalters BNY Mellon ein Trend ab, der wieder Grund zur Hoffnung gibt. Schätzungen des Finanzdienstleisters ergeben, dass der US-Markt für ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds), also börsennotierte Indexfonds, und vergleichbare Produkte wie ETNs (Exchange-Traded Notes) seinen Wert bis zum Jahr 2015 in etwa verdoppeln wird. Damit bilden ETFs zur aktuellen Stunde einen der zukunftsträchtigsten und verlässlichsten Bereiche in der Finanzbranche.
In der Tat wuchsen die ETF-Märkte seit den frühen neunziger Jahre beständig an und verzeichneten nur während der Finanzkrise im Jahr 2008 einen markanteren Rückgang. 2009 erreichte der Markt weltweit ein Volumen von rund 1 Billion US-Dollar. Den Löwenanteil halten seit jeher die USA als Geburtsland der ETFs. Das europäische Volumen ist hingegen vergleichsweise niedrig: 2009 lag es bei rund 160 Mrd. Euro. BNY Mellon erwartet, dass die ETF-Märkte in den kommenden vier Jahren den Sprung von den bisher etwas mehr als 1 Billion US-Dollar auf rund 2 Billionen US-Dollar schaffen.
Die Studie prognostiziert hierbei ein jährliches Wachstum von durchschnittlich 16 Prozent. Damit haben die börsennotierten Indexfonds durchaus stattliche Zukunftsaussichten. In der Tat liegt die Wachstumsrate laut dem US-Vermögensverwalter aber deutlich hinter dem Wert von 27 Prozent, der den Markt zwischen 2005 und 2010 neue Höhen erklimmen ließ. Die Studie führt dies auf den allgemein bekannten Umstand zurück, dass größere Industrien langsamer wachsen. Außerdem seien viele Anleger kurz davor, ihre Sättigungsgrenze zu erreichen.
Dennoch stellt der ETF-Markt einen wachsenden Ast der Finanzbranche dar, der noch über große Aufnahmekapazitäten für neue Anbieter und Anleger verfügt. Die Liste an ETFs wird nicht grundlos jeden Tag länger: Momentan sind weltweit rund 2700 börsengehandelte Indexfonds notiert, allein 835 davon an der Frankfurter Börse. Bei einem Wert, der sich den 2 Billionen annähert, können Nutzer schon mit weniger Marktanteilen einen ansehnlichen Gewinn erwirtschaften.
Neue Angebote müssen sich jedoch von bisherigen Produkten unterscheiden, um bei den Anlegern anzukommen. Aktiv geführte ETFs, Short-ETFs und solche, die an Rohstoffe wie das zurzeit hoch im Kurs stehende Gold gebunden sind, haben hierbei die besten Erfolgschancen.
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